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politics and politicians Title: New theory among anti-Trumpers: He’s deliberately sabotaging his campaign This theory isnt new, really, but it is more prominent among #NeverTrumpers on social media lately thanks to Trumps recent hot streak insulting Heidi Cruz, defending Corey Lewandowski and doubling down on attacking Michelle Fields, and todays latest master stroke, taking a dump on national TV on 40 years worth of carefully constructed pro-life messaging. The best statement of the theory Ive seen lately is this Twitter tirade by Lachlan Markay. If Trump was trying to blow up his own campaign, would he be doing anything different right now? I dont think he ever actually wanted to be POTUS. He just wanted to be able to say he *could* be if he chose to do so. Winning, etc. And now he realizes what a sh*t job this would be. And maybe, just maybe, hes not entirely sure that hes up to the immense task. But he cant just drop out. Hes a winner after all. And he needs to preserve his winner persona, for the sake of his ego if nothing else. So he triples down on the Michelle Fields fiasco, says some crazy sh*t about abortion, Cruz crushes it in WI, momentum shifts. Hes banking on a brokered convention. He wants to be robbed so he can say that he was actually the winner but the establishment f*cked him. He would maintain his public persona, cement his status as an anti-establishment hero, but never actually have to do any icky governing. Come 2017, his brand is hotter than its ever been and he can do pretty much whatever he wants which I dont think is actually politics. Of course this would completely tear apart the GOP, but if its not totally clear by now, Trump does not give two sh*ts about the party. So the Party of Lincoln would be dead, Hillary would be president, but at least wed steer clear of the American decline hed precipitate. Clever, but I dont buy it, and I say that as a man who pushed a variation of this theory myself last year when Trumpmania was in its infancy. My brilliant hypothesis was that Trump would find a pretext to exit the race before Iowa voted if voters didnt force him out first by tanking his polls. Theres no way, I said, that an egomaniac this fragile would subject himself to the risk of a brand-shattering series of defeats. Trumps image depends on him being seen as the consummate winner. If he could find a way to get out while semi-plausibly claiming that he would have won had he stayed in the race, that would be ideal for him. He could leave satisfied that he was in fact the real winner, his brand intact. That theory, the honorable exit, worked out well, didnt it? Markays version is really just the honorable exit in the form of a brokered convention. By alienating enough constituencies within the GOP and convincing the delegates that hes totally unelectable this fall, hes setting himself up to have the nomination stolen from him in Cleveland. Hell leave as the real winner. Hell exert his influence by attacking the GOP nominee, wholl almost certainly be Ted Cruz, all summer and fall. When Cruz loses, hell say not incorrectly that the Republican Party cant win unless it satisfies his supporters. Theyre the kingmakers, and hes their king. Hell be a major player at least through the 2018 midterms and almost certainly into the 2020 election, with Republican candidates for various offices forced to kiss his ass as needed to earn his support. And like Markay says, the best part is that hell be spared the humiliation of a resounding defeat this fall or the headache of having to actually do a job thats famously difficult even for people who are qualified for it, which he isnt. Still, I dont buy it. To believe Markays theory requires you to believe, a la Newt Gingrich and Ann Coulter, that Trump actually knows what hes doing. Hes not a guy in over his head whos lettin it rip on highly sensitive questions about abortion; hes actually a genius whos carefully crafting one performance after another which he knows, cumulatively, will succeed in destroying his chances of winning. In Nate Silvers formulation, Trump is either the most brilliant political tactician of his era or just a guy randomly mashing buttons. Im going to guess that retweeting a Melanias hotter than Heidi Cruz photo was not, in fact, a coolly calculated play to turn millions of voters against him but really just a juvenile way of high-fiving his fans on late-night Twitter without any thought for the consequences. I.e. mashing buttons. To believe that Trumps sabotaging himself by playing puppet-master to the entire national media and the GOP electorate is, in an odd irony, basically to accept the Green Lantern nature of Trumps candidacy. Hes convinced his followers that he really does have super powers thatll let him achieve great things that mere mortal presidents cant. Now hes convincing his critics that he has super powers capable of orchestrating a very particular set of circumstances in which he exits from the race while claiming to have been the true victor. If all he wants to do is get out of the race and declare himself the winner, he doesnt need to bother with the next three months and the ensuing convention drama. He can take the next logical step now that hes rescinded his pledge to support the nominee: Quit the party on grounds that hes been treated unfairly and that the fix is obviously in at the convention and run as a third-party candidate. If sore-loser laws prevent him from getting on the ballot, organize a write-in campaign. He could do that tomorrow if he wants. Hell get all the same benefits as he would under Markays theory with zero risk that he might just end up being nominated in Cleveland after all. Cruz, the nominee, will almost certainly lose as the party splits, and Trump can go around telling everyone that of course he would have won the nomination if the RNC and its delegate cronies hadnt conspired against him. Why bother hiring people to hunt for delegates if the plan is to lose eventually? Lose now and start phase two of Trumpmania: Donald Trump, kingmaker. If there really is a secret plan to lose, though, it looks like its working. That new 10-point Cruz lead in Wisconsin isnt the only poll out today showing a very recent shift away from Trump among Republicans: Thats Reuterss national tracking poll; the red line is Trump and the green line is Cruz. Trumps led all month, most of it by double digits, but something changed in the last week or so among Republicans. Is that the fallout from attacking Cruzs wife on Twitter coming back to haunt him or something else? Anyway. Heres the man of the people showing off his common touch. ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 30, 2016 Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread |
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