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politics and politicians Title: Shock PPP national poll: Trump 25, Cruz 21, Rubio 21 Its true, national polls are almost totally worthless but that never stopped Trump from crowing about them at his rallies, and after a surprising result in Iowa they can be helpful in detecting whether there really has been a change in voter sentiment that might show up next week in New Hampshire. If you believe PPP, Marcomentum is real and Trump may well be on his way down the drain. Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race. Hes up 8 points from his 13% standing in our poll right before Christmas. Beyond that hes seen a large spike in his favorability rating- its improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side. Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters. All of those numbers will change yet again, of course, if Trump holds on in New Hampshire, which I think he will. The table below isnt good for him, though. Bear in mind that Cruz and Rubio are both net favorable among nearly every other candidates supporters, meaning that if either one of them ends up in a two-man race with Trump, theyre looking good: Rubio also does well as the second choice of supporters of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, both of whom are likely to be out soon: On the other hand, Cruz cleans up among fans of Ben Carson, whos also likely to be out soon. Interestingly, Christie fans prefer Cruz to Rubio as a second choice, which may be the product of butthurt over his fade in New Hampshire or may be statistical noise due to a small subsample. One more result for you. Heres what happens when other candidates voters are forced to choose between Rubio and Cruz. I remind you again that national polls are useless, as Cruz will/would obviously do better than these numbers in his southern strongholds, which are coming up on March 1st. (Much better if Trumps not in the race at that point.) Dont forget, though, that Rubios playing a long game, eyeing the more moderate electorates thatll show up for winner-take-all primaries when blue-state Republicans start voting later this spring. He may outperform these numbers in those strongholds, which will be trouble for Cruz. But thats all too far in the future. What about New Hampshire? Rubio inched up to 15 percent there in the latest poll, his best showing in weeks, but Trumps still at 36 percent. Even if you allow for a Trump effect in the polls, where Trumps support is systematically overstated by, say, five points, Rubio still has to make up more than 15 points in the next five days. And he has to do it with basically everyone in the field not only attacking him but forging alliances to attack him: While emails, texts and phone calls between operatives in rival campaigns are not uncommon in the tight-knit world of political strategists, the contact between senior aides in the two campaigns has drifted toward musings about what can be done to stop or at least slow Mr. Rubio, the operatives said. In a sign of a budding alliance, the aides have, for example, exchanged news articles that raise potential areas of vulnerability for Mr. Rubio. There is no formal coordination, the operatives stressed, but rather a recognition of a shared agenda
A division of labor seems to have taken hold. While a well-financed super PAC supporting Mr. Bush assails Mr. Rubio on television and in the mail (it will release a new batch of ads on Thursday), Mr. Christie has stepped up the critiques on the campaign trail. The latest joint Bush/Christie production is to attack Rubio for being unelectable because hes
too hardline on abortion. So Rubios not too establishment for a Republican primary? Hes actually
too conservative? Admittedly, any attack by Bush or Christie will seem feeble because they have the stench of death around them, but I dont get Christies boy in the bubble takedown and I dont see how abortion is the magic bullet that destroys Rubios vaunted electability. All Republican candidates will be attacked as anti-woman, whatever the nuances of their positions on exceptions for rape. If you want to stop Rubio, youre best off hitting him for lacking experience which Christie and Bush are both doing, wisely and for his great heresy on immigration. But Jeb cant do that because hes knee-deep in amnesty too, and no one believes Christie when he pretends to be offended by the Gang of Eight. The dilemma for Bush, Kasich, and Christie is that, while Rubio may be establishment, hes still less establishment than they are even with the immigration bill chained to his ankles. How do you beat him in New Hampshire from the left? Poster Comment: Live by the polls, die by the polls. The second-choice questions on where Carson's and Christie's supporters will go if they drop out are interesting. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 8.
#7. To: TooConservative (#0)
I see the GOP elites are moving Rubio up in the polls. I think Carson and Rubio are fighting for the same people. Easily swayed by pubs. Many of the Carson voters like him just because he is black. He would be a terrible president because he would be eaten alive by the MSM and the elites. Rubio is being breed to be the next bush with all the financing to go with it. Jeb, well he is there to be be the punching bag and keep Rubio from being hurt. Lady Lyndsey just wasn't cutting it as a punching bag. I got to tell you I will not vote for Rubio. It would be another bush presidency which means more of the same. The only 3 I would have voted for are as preferred in order Cruz, Paul and Trump. And Rand never really had a chance.
It's their only play with Bush out of the running. I don't think that Kasich or Christie really stood a chance with the GOPe. They always loved Rubio for his shamnesty attempt. Supposedly, a Latino nominee means that the GOPe can just replace you completely. You would become just another voter they could care less about. The Dims did this already to their white male voters.
#9. To: TooConservative (#8)
Rubio's an anchor baby. Neither of his parents were U.S. citizens at the time of his birth. You call this "natural born"? What's next? Some ISIS chick gives birth on U.S. soil and her spawn can be President?
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