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The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: GOP in panic over Trump
Source: The Hill
URL Source: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/261252-gop-in-panic-over-trump
Published: Nov 27, 2015
Author: Niall Stanage
Post Date: 2015-11-27 08:41:13 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1713
Comments: 14

The Republican establishment is nearing full-blown panic about Donald Trump.

The demise of Trump’s candidacy has been predicted by centrist Republicans and the media alike virtually since the day it began. But there is no empirical evidence at all to suggest it is happening.

Last month, the liberal ThinkProgress collated more than 30 predictions of the business mogul’s imminent demise. One typical example was The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, who discerned “the beginning of the end of Trump” in mid-July, soon after the mogul criticized the Vietnam War record of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

Despite all that, Trump has led the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average in a virtually unbroken spell for four months. The only person to briefly wrest the lead away from him, Dr. Ben Carson, appears to be fading. And numerous polls show Trump drawing double the support of his closest establishment-friendly rival, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)

Add to all this the fact that Trump’s lead over the rest of the GOP field has expanded since the terrorist attacks in Paris, and it becomes clear why anxiety among his many Republican critics is reaching new heights.

“He has a real shot at this. He is the clear front-runner,” said Ron Bonjean, a consultant and former aide to GOP leaders on Capitol Hill.

Adding that “months ago, we all discounted Trump as a candidate,” Bonjean now acknowledged that it seems “safe to assume that he is going to continue with this strong momentum right into Iowa.”

The Iowa caucuses are set for Feb. 1, a little over two months away. Voters tend to pay less attention to politics over the holiday season than at other times, a trend that makes dramatic shifts in the race less likely during that period.

Only one more televised debate will take place before the end of the year, on Dec. 15 in Las Vegas. Beyond that, there will be only one more such clash, in January, four days before the caucuses.

“The media has twisted and turned through a number of different positions where they tried to explain that it was just a fad — the summer of Trump,” said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “Well, it’s lasted all fall. There is a realization that you are not going to wake up tomorrow and he’s going to vanish.”

Robinson, who is not affiliated with any candidate, was scathing toward those GOP centrists who assert that Trump will be unable to translate his polling support into votes because of a weak ground game.

“That is the wishful thinking of the establishment,” he said. “That is what they tell themselves so they can sleep at night. The truth is, Trump has one of the better ground operations in Iowa. Will he turn out every single person who shows up at his rallies? No. But if he turns out a fraction, he will roll over the field.”

Trump’s critics within the GOP are now coming to believe that an air war — that is, negative TV advertising — is more likely to deliver results than anything else. They note that a $1 million campaign in Iowa by the conservative Club for Growth appeared to put some dent in Trump’s numbers. (It also drew the threat of legal action from the candidate.)

A super-PAC backing the presidential candidacy of Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is already targeting the business mogul. On Nov. 20, The Wall Street Journal reported that Liz Mair, a well-known Republican operative, was planning a “guerrilla campaign” against Trump. A memo prepared by Mair’s organization, Trump Card LLC, stated that “in the absence of our efforts, Trump is exceedingly unlikely to implode or be forced out of the race.”

Rick Wilson, a Florida GOP strategist who has agreed to help produce TV ads for Mair’s group if it raises funding, told The Hill, “I expected that the other candidates and campaigns would by now have stepped up to knock down Trump’s numbers, and I was wrong. Unlike Donald Trump, I will admit when I have made an error.”

But Wilson added that capsizing the businessman’s chances at this point would require a significant financial effort.

“It’s going to need a sustained commitment from people who need to understand that if you hand the Republican nomination to Donald Trump, you hand the White House to Hillary Clinton,” he said.

Some experts still contend that Trump will fall of his own accord, or that his current poll ratings will prove deceptive. Statistician Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight website, has argued that the majority of voters only make their decisions much closer to polling time.

Others have cited the 2012 cycle, when several Republican candidates’ stars rose and faded, to suggest that Trump will lose altitude before the first votes are cast.

Silver’s thesis seems to rest on the idea that late-deciding voters will make completely different choices than those who have already tuned in to the process — a supposition that may be true but is unproven for now.

As for 2012, while it is true that former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) was leading the RCP average at the equivalent point to now, that was to be a relatively short-lived phenomenon, just as earlier boomlets for candidates such as then-Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and businessman Herman Cain had proved to be.

In fact, the consistency of Trump’s polling performance this cycle has more in common with the steady showing of eventual 2012 nominee Mitt Romney than anyone else.

Other anti-Trump forces within the GOP hold out hope that as the field winnows, the whole dynamic of the race will shift, with primary voters coalescing around a different option.

But none of that is guaranteed. Trump remains as bullishly confident as ever. And Republican insiders know the hour is getting late.

“If Trump is not your cup of tea, it’s time to bring your own coffee pot out and start brewing something,” said Robinson.

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#1. To: cranky (#0)

“It’s going to need a sustained commitment from people who need to understand that if you hand the Republican nomination to Donald Trump, you hand the White House to Hillary Clinton,” he said.

The Ruling Class fear is not that at all. It would be perfectly fine with Xlinton as POTUS.

What they fear is - in a Trump vs. Hilliary matchup, that Trump may win.

And it cannot let that happen. And it won't. . . .

"Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD . . . "

~Psalm 33:12a

Rufus T Firefly  posted on  2015-11-27   9:02:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: cranky (#0)

Willie Green  posted on  2015-11-27   9:05:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: cranky (#0)

The Republican establishment is nearing full-blown panic about Donald Trump.

Sounds like the Republican establishment is still worried that a quasi-conservative might be viable enough to become a nominee. And here they were thinking that they could shoehorn a RINO in once Trump's glimmer faded.

Since TheHill pitches biased articles from any direction, I would surmise that this is a Liberal disbelief piece. The libs don't want Trump either. He is too polarizing against the Hildabeest. Hildabeest still has a chance of people waking up and peering through the corruption her clan has succumbed to.

TheFireBert  posted on  2015-11-27   9:20:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: cranky (#0)

"Trump’s critics within the GOP are now coming to believe that an air war — that is, negative TV advertising — is more likely to deliver results than anything else."

And what, exactly, would those "results" be?

Do they think negative advertising is going to drive an existing Trump supporter to JEB!? To Rubio? To Christie?

What kind of leadership wants to drive out the front runner and leave a vacuum?

misterwhite  posted on  2015-11-27   9:33:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: cranky (#0)

"Others have cited the 2012 cycle, when several Republican candidates’ stars rose and faded, to suggest that Trump will lose altitude before the first votes are cast."

In a field of 16, I say again, 16, candidates, Trump has been #1 in the polls since the day he announced. What other Republican primary candidate can make that claim?

So why does numbnuts here think these rules apply to Trump?

misterwhite  posted on  2015-11-27   9:37:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: misterwhite (#4)

What kind of leadership wants to drive out the front runner and leave a vacuum?

The RNC comes to mind.

And if they can't fill the vacuum, Hildebeest will do just fine for the next four years.

There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't

cranky  posted on  2015-11-27   10:18:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: misterwhite (#4)

What kind of leadership wants to drive out the front runner and leave a vacuum?

Dying leadership. They see the inevitable demographic shifts, largely of their own creation, as handwriting on the wall.

Maintaining control of the currently available spoils is more important to them than just another election loss. Lost elections are their future.

Roscoe  posted on  2015-11-27   10:18:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: TheFireBert (#3)

My Prayer is that Christ will give me the time to see Donald Trump elected on November 8, 2016, sworn in on January 20, 2017, implement his agenda, starting with riding the nation of illegals, muslims, the EPA and the departments or energy and education, and then to give his life to the Lord God of Creation becoming a Born Again Washed in the Blood of the Lamb Christian.

That is my prayer.

Then I can die a happy man.

May God have mercy on the soul of any that harm a hair on his head.

I felt a lot better about his safety before the SS was assigned to him all they will be doing is disarming men who would fight to protect him.

Pre-SS, the men and women protecting him were protecting him, now the G0vt has assigned armed stooges that obey and bow down to the alter of obama.

Let me tell you why I am convinced that it must be a TRUMP/CRUZ ticket.

On November 23rd, 1963 JJFK was killed and LBJ was made president.

I am convinced that if any, but Cruz, is Donald's VP, the ruling political class will use their assassins in the SS to kill Donald and get their guy in office. They hate Cruz almost as much as the hate Donald, but this they know, if they kill Donald and Cruz is the VP, Cruz could and would activate the Militias and hunt the assassins down and kill them.

That's why, in my opinion, it must be a TRUMP/CRUZ ticket.

Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.

BobCeleste  posted on  2015-11-27   11:08:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Roscoe (#7) (Edited)

"Maintaining control of the currently available spoils is more important to them than just another election loss. Lost elections are their future."

Ain't that the truth. More important to the GOP to maintain the existing political system than to actually do the will of the people. And they're really good when they're in the minority, fighting the good fight, but "gosh darn it, it only WE were only in power".

Sickening.

misterwhite  posted on  2015-11-27   13:52:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: misterwhite (#9)

More important to the GOP to maintain the existing political system

In Congress, the GOP and Democrat office holders both have seats gerrymandered to ensure their lifetime incumbencies. Unbalanced, noncompetitive districts serve the interests of both parties. If an incumbent congressperson is unlucky enough to get stuck with unfavorable demographics after the latest redistricting, they just move (on paper) into an open seat district with voter registration figures more to their liking.

I don't see any solution to the situation except possibly at large congressional elections. And the federal courts won't let that happen.

Roscoe  posted on  2015-11-27   17:05:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Roscoe (#10)

"I don't see any solution ..."

I don't see any problem.

IF a congressional district is gerrymangered to consist of only, say, Republicans, a Republican congressman is elected to represent Republican interests. Assuming that's how he votes, everyone's happy. Hell yes he should be reelected.

misterwhite  posted on  2015-11-27   17:16:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: misterwhite (#11)

IF a congressional district is gerrymangered to consist of only, say, Republicans, a Republican congressman is elected to represent Republican interests.

Agreed, subject to the big IF. Here in California, election to Congress ends virtually any possibility of accountability to the Republican voters. Nothing but farcical primary elections ahead, then smooth sailing in the general.

What I would really like to see are state laws requiring third term congressional incumbents to run as write ins. Not that the courts would allow that either.

Roscoe  posted on  2015-11-27   17:30:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Roscoe (#12)

"election to Congress ends virtually any possibility of accountability to the Republican voters."

Now that would piss me off. Hard to image how they would get re-elected.

misterwhite  posted on  2015-11-27   17:33:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: misterwhite (#13)

Hard to image how they would get re-elected.

It would limit some of the current electoral advantages of incumbency. I think a few career politicos might slip through the eye of that needle. Lisa Murkowski managed it in the Senate.

Roscoe  posted on  2015-11-27   17:46:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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