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Title: Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown
Source: Reuters
URL Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013 ... slowdown-idUSBRE93F0AJ20130416
Published: Apr 16, 2013
Author: Alister Doyle
Post Date: 2013-04-16 22:39:22 by jwpegler
Keywords: None
Views: 4275
Comments: 8

Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Getting this right is essential for the short and long-term planning of governments and businesses ranging from energy to construction, from agriculture to insurance. Many scientists say they expect a revival of warming in coming years.

Theories for the pause include that deep oceans have taken up more heat with the result that the surface is cooler than expected, that industrial pollution in Asia or clouds are blocking the sun, or that greenhouse gases trap less heat than previously believed.

The change may be a result of an observed decline in heat-trapping water vapor in the high atmosphere, for unknown reasons. It could be a combination of factors or some as yet unknown natural variations, scientists say.

Weak economic growth and the pause in warming is undermining governments' willingness to make a rapid billion-dollar shift from fossil fuels. Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a plan by the end of 2015 to combat global warming.

"The climate system is not quite so simple as people thought," said Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician and author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" who estimates that moderate warming will be beneficial for crop growth and human health.

Some experts say their trust in climate science has declined because of the many uncertainties. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had to correct a 2007 report that exaggerated the pace of melt of the Himalayan glaciers and wrongly said they could all vanish by 2035.

"My own confidence in the data has gone down in the past five years," said Richard Tol, an expert in climate change and professor of economics at the University of Sussex in England.

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first showed in the 1890s how man-made carbon dioxide, from coal for instance, traps heat in the atmosphere. Many of the exact effects are still unknown.

Greenhouse gas emissions have hit repeated record highs with annual growth of about 3 percent in most of the decade to 2010, partly powered by rises in China and India. World emissions were 75 percent higher in 2010 than in 1970, UN data show.

UN PANEL SEEKS EXPLANATION

A rapid rise in global temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s - when clean air laws in developed nations cut pollution and made sunshine stronger at the earth's surface - made for a compelling argument that human emissions were to blame.

The IPCC will seek to explain the current pause in a report to be released in three parts from late 2013 as the main scientific roadmap for governments in shifting from fossil fuels towards renewable energies such as solar or wind power, the panel's chairman Rajendra Pachauri said.

According to Pachauri, temperature records since 1850 "show there are fluctuations. They are 10, 15 years in duration. But the trend is unmistakable."

The IPCC has consistently said that fluctuations in the weather, perhaps caused by variations in sunspots or a La Nina cooling of the Pacific, can mask any warming trend and the panel has never predicted a year-by-year rise in temperatures.

Experts say short-term climate forecasts are vital to help governments, insurers and energy companies to plan.

Governments will find little point in reinforcing road bridges over rivers, for instance, if a prediction of more floods by 2100 doesn't apply to the 2020s.

A section of a draft IPCC report, looking at short-term trends, says temperatures are likely to be 0.4 to 1.0 degree Celsius (0.7-1.8F) warmer from 2016-35 than in the two decades to 2005. Rain and snow may increase in areas that already have high precipitation and decline in areas with scarcity, it says.

EXCEPTIONS AND CHALLENGES

Pachauri said climate change can have counter-intuitive effects, like more snowfall in winter that some people find hard to accept as side-effects of a warming trend. An IPCC report last year said warmer air can absorb more moisture, leading to heavier snowfall in some areas.

A study by Dutch experts this month sought to explain why there is now more sea ice in winter. It concluded melted ice from Antarctica was refreezing on the ocean surface - this fresh water freezes more easily than dense salt water.

Some experts challenged the findings.

"The hypothesis is plausible I just don't believe the study proves it to be true," said Paul Holland, an ice expert at the British Antarctic Survey.

Concern about climate change is rising in some nations, however, opinion polls show. Extreme events, such as Superstorm Sandy that hit the U.S. east coast last year, may be the cause. A record heatwave in Australia this summer forced weather forecasters to add a new dark magenta color to the map for temperatures up to 54 degrees Celsius (129F).

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#1. To: jwpegler (#0)

Warming Slowdown = Winter

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:03:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: All (#1)

Perception of the Arctic

Arctichoax

There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears were hunting penguins. Or vice versa. Whatever.

It was around 2006 when I started to get interested in global warming and the changes in climate it could cause, just before An Inconvenient Truth would shift the Climate PR war to higher gears. I vaguely noticed there is a place called 'the Arctic' - where the ocean is covered by a floating layer of ice of a few metres thick - when the perfect storm of 2007 annihilated the 2005 sea ice area and extent records. I remember reading about it on RealClimate and the comments there were the spark that would eventually fire my intention to start this blog.

In the meantime the 2012 melting season - not a perfect storm, even though it hosted a big one towards the end - annihilated all of the 2007 records. It's quite clear now that sea ice is melting much, much faster than anticipated, and the jaw-dropping sight of an ice-free Arctic that was projected to occur somewhere towards the end of this century, could be witnessed towards the end of this decade (if not earlier). The melting itself as well as potential consequences are getting more and more media attention, and lately I have been wondering how much of this news is actually seeping into the collective consciousness."

neven1.typepad.com/

basically none.

Whereas a Martian who decided to go into the Arcane Field of Earth's Polar Regions 25 years ago,

Would Now be In Charge of ALL AstroPhysics...... TODAY......;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:19:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: All (#2)

"....It partly explains how the recovery-propaganda, that was so fervently spread by fake skeptics after the 2008 and 2009 minimums didn't go below the 2007 record, still lingers on to this very date."

2007 set a record? ;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:22:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: All (#3)

"It could take a while until all folks with a conservative bent (nothing wrong with that, by the way) learn that the 2007 record was smashed in 2012 and things generally aren't looking too great in the Arctic, especially now that the misinformers that peddled the recovery-propaganda are mostly silent about Arctic sea ice (except for the usual shameless disinformation around this time of the year when extent is at its max)

;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:23:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: All (#4)

"Sixty percent of the large statewide sample (n = 1,688) think that Arctic warming will have "major effects" on the weather where they live.

It will be interesting to see if the numbers below will change in sync with the Arctic changes, but actually I'm surprised how many people already don't feel comfortable about the idea that the Arctic continues to warm (and lose ice).

I mean, 45% of Republican voters

thinks Arctic warming will have major effects on the weather where they live. Maybe the recovery-propaganda isn't working as well as hoped.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:24:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: jwpegler (#0)

#17. To: A K A Stone (#0)

What is your perspective on the public perception of Arctic sea ice loss? Do you notice any changes around you? Are people becoming aware of the existence of the Arctic and its disappearing sea ice?

Posted by Neven on April 15, 2013 at 18:33 in AGW, Climate PR war, Consequences, Fake skeptics | Permalink

"Regarding my own social environment I can say the following: most friends and family members don't have a clue. Not here in Austria, not in the Netherlands where I was born and bred, not in Germany where I lived for two years, not in Croatia where my roots lie. I've started talking a bit more about Arctic sea ice and potential consequences of its loss, but the conversation quickly and inevitably turns to those subjects that are foisted upon us by consumer culture (although I could go on for three days of course, if my wife wouldn't nudge me or kick me under the table).

All this will change soon.

OR

NOW

mcgowanjm posted on 2013-04-17

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-17   10:27:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: mcgowanjm (#1)

Warming Slowdown = Winter


It's tax season. This has become one of my favorite quotes over the last few years: Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. -- H. L. Mencken

jwpegler  posted on  2013-04-17   17:57:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: jwpegler (#7)

Great Comeback....but why do you want to talk about Criminalizing Marijuana?

Climate Change = ?

April 17th, 2013

Via: Daily Ticker:

The speed and depth of gold’s decline drew comparisons to the 1987 stock market crash and prompted veteran trader Dennis Gartman to declare: “We’ve never… ever… ever… seen anything like what we’ve witnessed in the past two trading sessions.”

mcgowanjm  posted on  2013-04-18   7:50:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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