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Title: The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet
Source: The Atlantic
URL Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business ... ment-graph-ive-seen-yet/60086/
Published: Jul 21, 2010
Author: Derek Thompson
Post Date: 2010-07-21 11:41:06 by Badeye
Keywords: None
Views: 47152
Comments: 64

The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet Jul 20 2010, 12:00 PM ET | Comment

The median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in the last 50 years. That's an understatement. It is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years.

OK, you're saying, but what does this mean? Does it mean we must increase the duration of unemployment benefits to protect this new class of unemployed, or does it mean we need to stop subsidizing joblessness? Does it mean we need to expand federal retraining programs, or does it mean federal retraining programs aren't working? Does it mean we need more stimulus, more state aid, more infrastructure projects, more public works ... or does it mean it's time to stop everything, stand back and let business be business?

You're going to find smart people make a case for all six of the above public policy directions. (I tend to side with the first of each coupling.) It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong.

One of my first reactions to this graph was: Surely this is why we don't have to worry about inflation for a very, very long time. However, here's evidence that despite the historically inverse relationship between inflation and joblessness, "the long-term unemployed put less downward pressure on inflation." Ultimately, this is a graph that should humble policy makers more than it should scare them into confidently arguing they know exactly how to fix it.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 19.

#8. To: Badeye (#0) (Edited)

The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax). We also subside inefficient uses of capital (the home mortgage deduction). In addition, we also have among the most complicated, contradictory and onerous regulations in the world. On top that, the federal and state governments are crowding out the credit markets in a futile attempt to keep "promises" that were made by dead politicians 40 to 80 years ago.

Somehow, leftists are perplexed about why the economy is in the toilet. They were perplexed during the Carter administration too, telling us that 8% unemployment was the new normal. Sorry, but Reagan and Clinton demonstrated how nonsensical that was. We're in this dire situation today because Bush and Obama are socialist nincompoops who dramatically grew government spending and debt.

I'll tell you what we need to do...

First, put government on a diet. A great place to start is with lavish pension programs for government employees. In many states, pension programs cost more than education. Who has a pension program in the private sector anymore? I don't. Do you? Why should we risk our economic future so that bureaucrats can retire to Florida and play golf for 25 years???

Second, we need to stop taxing investment, production and jobs. Let's implement some smart consumptions taxes instead, including a broad-based national sales tax. Yes, we can tax the consumption of fossil fuels, tobacco, booze, luxury items, and yes marijuana at a higher rate.

Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more.

If we turn America into the best place to invest and produce and we'll have more job opportunities than we'll know what to do with. Otherwise, we'll continue to sink into the abyss.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-21   13:38:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: jwpegler (#8)

The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax).

It doesn't tax investments. It taxes exactly what it says it taxes...gains.

Most corporations, because they are small businesses, don't pay anywhere near the top rate. GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year. Again, it's not the rate it's what you actually pay.

Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more.

Throughout the history of the US, the "competitive market" has shown time and time again that it wants to maximize it's profits for minimal services. We ended up with compulsory public education because Americans were becoming dumber than the Indians they'd supplanted.

war  posted on  2010-07-21   18:42:55 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: war (#12) (Edited)

GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year

Here's why:

A.) The U.S. has the second highest corporate rates in the world (slightly below Japan).

The result: Global companies sluff off as many of their global opperating costs as they can in the U.S. and take their profits in low tax countries.

B.) The U.S. is one of only 5 countries in the entire world (out of over 220 countries) that tax earnings that are repatriated from overseas.

The result? Most companies never bring their overseas earnings back home to invest here because they would be taxed again if they did so.

The government's policy is completely counterproductive, without any redeeming value at all.

Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-21   18:52:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: jwpegler (#14)

Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive.

What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks.

lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-21   23:08:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: lucysmom, jwpegler (#16)

What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks.

Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap.

Ibluafartsky  posted on  2010-07-21   23:23:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Ibluafartsky (#17)

Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap.

Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors.

lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-22   0:52:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: lucysmom (#18)

Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors.

What a bunch of horse shit. The anti-business attitude of you and people like you is why the country is in the toilet today.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-22   8:43:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 19.

#20. To: jwpegler (#19)

What a bunch of horse shit.

You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs?

war  posted on  2010-07-22 08:45:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: jwpegler (#19)

What a bunch of horse shit. The anti-business attitude of you and people like you is why the country is in the toilet today.

No, its the anti-American attitude of business that's put the country in the toilet.

Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains. Thomas Jefferson

lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-22 08:59:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 19.

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